As we all know, Oscar season is a year-round affair. The first domino dropped on October 19th, with the first film award nominations coming – these were for the Gotham Independent Film Awards. These are given annually from the Independent Filmmaker Project (IFP) “the largest membership organization in the United States dedicated to independent film” and the awards were founded in 1991.
A group of people decide on the nominations and awards, limiting the scope to films that could be considered independent – so big budget movies and big studio ones are ineligible. So we wouldn’t expect to see Dunkirk or Wonder Woman here. But independent film has dominated the Oscars for the last 20 years anyway – the last four years have been indie winners for Best Picture, for 12 Years a Slave (2013), Birdman (2014), Spotlight (2015) and Moonlight (2016) – all of which were nominated for Best Feature in the Gothams.
Let’s show the actual nominees first and then see what it means:
Best Feature:
Call Me by Your Name
The Florida Project
Get Out
Good Time
I, Tonya
Best Documentary:
Ex Libris: The New York Public Library
Rat Film
Strong Island
Whose Streets?
The Work
Best Actor:
Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
James Franco – The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
Robert Pattinson – Good Time
Adam Sandler – The Meyerowitz Stories
Harry Dean Stanton – Lucky
Best Actress:
Melanie Lynskey – I Don’t Feel at Home in This World Anymore
Haley Lu Richardson – Columbus
Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
Lois Smith – Marjorie Prime
Best Screenplay:
Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani – The Big Sick
Mike White – Brad’s Status
James Ivory – Call Me by Your Name
Kogonada – Columbus
Jordan Peele – Get Out
Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
Breakthrough Actor:
Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
Timothée Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name
Harris Dickinson – Beach Rats
Kelvin Harrison Jr. – It Comes at Night
Brooklynn Prince – The Florida Project
Bingham Ray Breakthrough Director Award:
Margaret Betts – Novitiate
Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
Kogonada – Columbus
Jordan Peele – Get Out
Joshua Z. Weinstein – Menashe
Films with multiple nominations:
4x – Get Out
3x – Call Me By Your Name, The Florida Project, Columbus, Lady Bird
2x – I, Tonya, Good Time, Mudbound (including special Ensemble Award)
As far as a predictor, the Gothams are more fun as the earliest game in town, rather than the best predictor. In “Best Feature” only 35% of the nominated films end up nominated for Best Picture, since 2009 (the year that the Best Picture lineup expanded from five nominees) – but, out of the five annual nominees, the Gothams does average about 1.75 films up for the top Oscar.
Furthermore, the Gothams have some specialty categories for Breakthrough Actor and Breakthrough Director that don’t translate directly to the Oscars. But, since 2013, the Gothams have dedicated Actor and Actress categories that collectively have about a 34% prediction rate – Gotham nominees that were Oscars winners in the past include Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club), Brie Larson (Room), Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), Julianne Moore (Still Alice) and Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine). Only a few nominees from the Breakthrough Actor categories have made it – only five over forty-one nominees – Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker), Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone), Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave), and Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea).
That being said… Looks like the support has started for Get Out, which is great, which got four nominations to lead the pack (Picture, Actor – Daniel Kaluuya, Screenplay/Direction – Jordan Peele). It’s hard not to be happy for the accolades for Jordan Peele, with the actor nomination for Daniel Kaluuya (who was fantastic) as a welcome surprise.
Similarly, writer/breakthrough director Greta Gerwig received two nominations directly for Lady Bird in the screenplay and direction, with a third for the previous nominee Saoirse Ronan in Best Actress. Oscar hopefuls The Florida Project and Call Me By Your Name also received three nominations, including for Best Feature. Call Me By Your Name is already riding a wave of support
Also, the surging I, Tonya, which got a surprise 2nd place People’s Choice at the Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF) this year, got multiple nominations at the Gothams, for Margot Robbie as the titular Tonya, and for best feature, edging out The Big Sick (which did get a screenplay nomination). Personally, I’m also just a little curious about Columbus, starring John Cho in a film directed by Kogonada about architecture in Columbus, Indiana.
And Netflix – spurned by the Academy so far for itself spurning the theatrical experience – gets a couple nominations for its films – Melanie Lynskey for I Don’t Feel At Home… A welcome nomination for Adam Sandler in the recently released Meyerowitz Stories… And Mudbound (releasing on Netflix in November) gets a nomination for Mary J. Blige and a special ensemble award.
Hopeful nominations from the Gothams (in my opinion):
Best Picture: Get Out, Call Me By Your Name – maybe The Florida Project
Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name) – maybe Franco (Disaster Artist), Pattinson (Good Time) or the late Stanton (Lucky).
Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project) – maybe Adam Sandler (Meyerowitz Stories).
Best Actress: Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) – maybe Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Best Supporting Actress: Mary J. Blige (Mudbound) – maybe Brooklyn Prince (The Florida Project).
Best Original Screenplay: The Big Sick, Get Out, Lady Bird
Best Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name
Best Director: Jordan Peele (Get Out) – maybe Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
Interesting Omissions:
Melissa Leo for Novitiate – the director was nominated, but Melissa (acting all Whiplash as a strict nun in a convent) was not nominated.
Allison Janney for I, Tonya – Robbie and the film were nominated, but Janney had earlier buzz as the foul-mouthed and scene-stealing mother of Tonya Harding.
The Big Sick for Best Feature or Best Actress (Holly Hunter) – a personal favorite, and I’d love to see even more love for this.
Nothing for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, which was the People’s Choice winner at TIFF 2017 – maybe the budget was too big, or the studio (Fox Searchlight) too non-independent (read: dependent).
It’ll be fun to see how this turns out.
